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TL;DR
Europe has created a comprehensive AI regulation framework, but its AI capabilities lag behind the US and China. This gap raises concerns about defending against hybrid threats that increasingly rely on advanced AI tools.
Europe’s leading regulatory framework for artificial intelligence, the AI Act, is in place, but the continent’s AI development lags behind the US and China, raising concerns about its ability to defend against hybrid threats involving advanced AI tools.
On Tuesday, a small drone carrying explosives was spotted near Leipzig/Halle airport’s south runway, a key NATO and German military logistics hub. The drone was defused by police using a bomb-disposal robot, and the incident is under investigation as a potential hybrid attack targeting critical infrastructure.
Simultaneously, a DHL cargo aircraft diverted after striking an unknown object mid-air, further fueling security concerns. German authorities have classified these events as part of a hybrid threat scenario, emphasizing the sophistication and deniability of such campaigns.
Thorsten Meyer, an analyst, notes that while physical security measures like radar and counter-drone systems are vital, the broader challenge lies in the AI tools that underpin hybrid warfare. Europe’s AI capabilities, according to Meyer, are significantly behind those of the US and China, with the continent building AI at roughly half the frontier level of its competitors.
Despite having the most comprehensive AI regulation, Europe’s AI development trajectory remains flat, widening the gap with major global labs. This disparity affects critical defense systems, which increasingly depend on advanced AI for threat detection, cyber defense, and autonomous countermeasures.
An explosive drone on a military cargo hub’s runway. A “professional hybrid threat,” said the interior minister — “a new level of danger.” It’s a moment to say something uncomfortable about how Europe is meeting the era it has entered.
▲ Opinion · strategic argument is the author’s ownEurope’s reflex to a new technology is to regulate it — and it’s genuinely good at it. The AI Act is the most comprehensive AI law on Earth. The discomfort is what sits underneath.
The sloppy version of this argument is wrong, and I won’t make it. The real connection runs one level deeper — through the word “hybrid.”
The rebuttal: just use American AI. For many things, today, Europe can. But defense is the specific case where you can’t.
The strongest version of the other side, because parts of it are right and it deserves to be heard.
- Regulation and capability aren’t zero-sum — Europe is investing (InvestAI, gigawatt data centers)
- Drone defense is mostly physical security and intelligence, not frontier LLMs — I overweight my own field
- Sovereign defense AI may need a smaller controllable model, not a leaderboard chase
- Setting global norms has real value, capability or not
Only capability does that — and it’s the thing we’ve been legislating around instead of building.
Implications of AI Capability Gaps for National Security
This situation underscores a fundamental issue: regulating a technology without possessing its leading capabilities can leave a nation vulnerable to hybrid threats that leverage AI for sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. Europe's focus on regulation has not translated into technological leadership, risking dependency on foreign AI providers during crises.
The incident at Leipzig/Halle exemplifies how hybrid warfare operates across multiple domains—cyber, physical, and informational—and how AI tools are central to both offensive and defensive operations. Europe's inability to match US and Chinese AI capabilities could hamper its response to future escalations, especially in scenarios demanding rapid, autonomous decision-making.
Maintaining sovereignty over AI is thus critical for national security, as reliance on foreign models may expose vulnerabilities when relations sour or export controls tighten. Building trusted, domestically controlled AI infrastructure becomes a strategic imperative to safeguard critical infrastructure and military assets.
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Europe’s AI Development and Regulatory Landscape
Europe has established the AI Act, a pioneering regulatory framework intended to govern AI development and deployment. However, despite the legal and policy achievements, European AI labs—such as Mistral—are operating at only about 30-50% of the frontier level set by US and Chinese counterparts, according to the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.
This lag is not due to lack of regulation but stems from limited investment, talent, and infrastructure dedicated to cutting-edge AI research. The trajectory of European AI development has been flat, with no significant acceleration toward the frontier, which exacerbates the capability gap in critical defense and hybrid threat domains.
Meanwhile, the US and China continue to push forward with aggressive AI advancements, enabling more sophisticated cyber defenses, autonomous systems, and threat detection tools that are central to modern hybrid warfare.
"You cannot regulate your way to a capability you have chosen not to build. Europe's AI regulation is excellent, but its development is lagging, creating a dangerous vulnerability."
— Thorsten Meyer
Unresolved Questions About Europe’s AI Capabilities
It remains unclear whether European AI labs will accelerate development to reach frontier levels in time for critical defense needs, such as the new Hybrid Threats Centre. The exact extent of the capability gap and how quickly it can be closed is still uncertain, as is the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions on AI investment and policy.
Future Steps for Strengthening AI-Driven Defense
European policymakers and industry leaders are expected to prioritize increasing AI investment, fostering innovation, and developing trusted, domestically controlled AI systems. The government’s new Hybrid Threats Centre will likely push for accelerated AI development, but whether these efforts will bridge the capability gap remains to be seen.
Further investigations into hybrid incidents and international cooperation on AI standards may also shape Europe’s strategic posture in hybrid warfare and AI sovereignty.
Key Questions
Why is Europe's AI lag a security concern?
Because advanced AI tools are central to modern hybrid threats, Europe's lag in AI development could hinder its ability to detect, respond to, and defend against sophisticated cyber and physical attacks.
Can Europe rely on US or Chinese AI for defense?
While it can currently use foreign AI systems, reliance on external providers risks dependency, especially during crises when sovereignty and control over critical systems are essential.
What is the significance of the hybrid drone incident?
It illustrates how hybrid threats are evolving and how AI systems are integral to the defense infrastructure that needs to be domestically controlled to ensure resilience.
Will Europe catch up in AI development?
This remains uncertain; current trends suggest the gap may widen unless there is a significant shift in investment and innovation strategies.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
